You Won’t Believe Why Bitcoin’s Mood Swings Are Pushing Cryptos to the Edge

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Markets

What to know (unless you’re easily bored):

  • Bitcoin has been behaving like a rebellious teenager-more emotional than the Nasdaq on risk-off days, yet sulkily ignoring it when the stock market throws a tantrum.
  • This strange “negative skew” has only been seen since the last bear market’s existential crisis-late 2022, when we all thought the world was ending again.

For months now, Bitcoin’s antics have been as predictable as a politician’s flip-flop: it gets overly intimate with the Nasdaq when the tech giant flails, yet when the markets rally, Bitcoin suddenly remembers it has other hobbies. This week was no different. While the Nasdaq took a humiliating 2% nosedive on Thursday, Bitcoin doubled down, losing twice as much. Come Friday, tech stocks partly recovered, but Bitcoin was still sulking in the corner, unimpressed.

As the year comes to a close, the Nasdaq has managed a 20% gain, while our beloved digital gold hovers in the green with a paltry 3%. Clearly, Bitcoin is in no rush to celebrate.

A Reflection of Asymmetry (or a Circus Act)

According to Jasper De Maere from Wintermute, this isn’t a case of Bitcoin losing its grip on correlation with the Nasdaq (which is still a solid 0.8). No, it’s more like Bitcoin is a drama queen, responding unevenly to market risks. When equities party, Bitcoin stays mostly indifferent. When they sulk, Bitcoin throws a fit-moving more violently in the same miserable direction.

De Maere calls this “performance skew.” When Bitcoin outperforms in boisterous risk-on environments, it’s positively skewed. When it laggards behind in risk-off moods, it’s negatively skewed-like a guest at a dinner party who only shows up for the dessert.

And guess what? The skew has been decidedly prickly for some time now. If you were brave enough to chart it on a rollercoaster, you’d see that it’s fallen to levels last seen during the bleak end of 2022-when we thought the financial sky was falling for good.

Why has Bitcoin decided to play the misery martingale?

De Maere suggests that Bitcoin’s lost its charm for both Wall Street’s fancy suits and retail’s brave masses. Liquidity is thinning; ETF inflows are dulled, stablecoins are pacing themselves like a confused marathon runner, and market depth still lags behind the early days of 2024-implying that everyone’s just a bit bored, or maybe scared.

Hope or Hype? You Decide.

“Typically, this sort of negative asymmetry isn’t seen near peaks but rather when fortunes are about to turn,” muses De Maere, with a nod to that old friend called ‘exhaustion.’ When Bitcoin takes a nosedive on grim days more aggressively than it rises on spirited ones, it’s likely a sign that the crypto circus is running on fumes-not strength.

So, if you’re pondering whether the current Bitcoin performance skew is a sign of impending glory or just a long, dull sigh-well, you’re in good company. It basically says the investors are more drained than a bath after a hot yoga class, and that’s probably a good reason to hold your popcorn… or not. 🍿🤡

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2025-11-15 21:21