On a crisp autumn morning, as the digital leaves of the market fluttered under algorithmic winds, Hodges Capital Management filed a quiet declaration-one that spoke not in exclamations, but in measured arithmetic. On November 7, it revealed the acquisition of 507,012 shares in The GEO Group, a transaction gliding into view like a heron over still water: deliberate, almost imperceptible, yet altering the surface.
- Change in position: 507,012 shares added, net value increase of $8.8 million
- Transaction accounts for 0.99% of 13F AUM
- Post-trade stake: 955,386 shares valued at $19.6 million
- Position now 1.7% of AUM
What happened
The Securities and Exchange Commission, that modern scribe with its endless scrolls and cold archives, recorded the detail: Hodges Capital had deepened its stake in The GEO Group (GEO 1.82%) during the third quarter. No fanfare accompanied the move. No press release sang its arrival. And yet, the weight of it settled upon the books-a sum of $19.6 million now tethered to a single entity whose fate hinges on steel doors and government ledgers.
It was a doubling of their holding in mere months, a doubling not born of frenzy, but of quiet accumulation, as if gathering stones along a neglected path. By quarter’s end, this position grew to stand as the fund’s fifteenth-largest holding: modest in rank, perhaps, but significant in implication.
What else to know
- The fund increased its GEO holding, now representing 1.7% of its reportable U.S. equity AUM.
- Top five holdings after the filing:
- NASDAQ: WULF: $43.2 million (3.7% of AUM)
- NASDAQ: NVDA: $39.0 million (3.4% of AUM)
- NYSE: UBER: $35.5 million (3.0% of AUM)
- NYSE: TPL: $33.6 million (2.9% of AUM)
- NYSE: CLF: $29.7 million (2.5% of AUM)
- As of Nov. 6, GEO shares were priced at $15.41, down 28.3% over the past year, lagging the S&P 500 by 41.7 percentage points.
Company overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price (as of market close 2025-11-06) | $15.41 |
| Market Capitalization | $2.14 billion |
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.53 billion |
| Net Income (TTM) | $237.28 million |
Company snapshot
The GEO Group, Inc. tends to the margins of society-those shadowed corridors where law and liberty, justice and confinement, meet in uneasy congress. It operates secure facilities and supervision programs across the United States, Australia, and South Africa, a custodian of the confined. Its revenue flows not from innovation or disruption, but from long-term government contracts-steadfast, unglamorous, and, at times, haunted by moral ambiguity.
Its clients are empires of bureaucracy: U.S. federal, state, and local agencies, alongside international counterparts in the Global South. It does not sell dreams. It sells custody, control, and the somber, often overlooked work of reentry-helping the fallen climb back toward light, one monitored step at a time.
Foolish take
The market, that restless youth forever drawn to the new, has turned its face from The GEO Group. Though third-quarter earnings revealed a 13.1% surge in revenue to $682.3 million and a 19% rise in adjusted EPS to $0.25, the prophets of price sent the shares spiraling-down 10% in two days. Why? Forecasts, it seems, cast a longer shadow than past deeds. The guidance for the fourth quarter dimmed the hope that investors, like birds in migration, follow.
And yet, amid this cool withdrawal, Hodges Capital moves in the contrary direction-like an old man returning to a town others have abandoned, knowing something of endurance that the young cannot fathom.
For this is the generational divide: startups bloom and wither like summer blossoms, while companies such as GEO persist, their roots entwined with the slow machinery of state. They are neither noble nor cinematic-merely enduring. And sometimes, endurance is the only metric that matters to those who remember what volatility forgets.
Hodges’ stake now rests not at the center, but near the edge of its portfolio. Not a declaration of revolution, but a quiet affirmation. A belief not in transformation, but in continuity. And as the fund waits for the next quarterly dawn, we watch-not for what is said, but for what is added. 😊
Glossary
13F AUM: The total value of U.S. equity securities a fund manager reports on SEC Form 13F.
AUM (Assets Under Management): The total market value of investments managed on behalf of clients by a fund or firm.
Stake: The ownership interest or position held by an investor or fund in a particular company.
Fee-for-service model: A business approach where clients pay for each service provided, rather than a flat or bundled rate.
Correctional, detention, and community reentry services: Services related to managing prisons, supervising detainees, and helping individuals transition back into society.
Facility management: The operation and oversight of buildings or complexes, especially in the context of secure or correctional environments.
Supervision services: Monitoring and managing individuals, often as part of parole, probation, or electronic monitoring programs.
Government contracts: Agreements to provide goods or services to government agencies, often long-term and subject to specific regulations.
TTM: The 12-month period ending with the most recent quarterly report.
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2025-11-09 18:13