AES’s Ascendancy: A Tale of Acquisition

The AES Corporation’s shares experienced a notable ascent on Wednesday morning, occasioned by whispers that a subsidiary of the esteemed private equity entity BlackRock intends to acquire the electricity utility at a price tag of $38 billion.

By 9:50 a.m. ET, AES stock had risen 13.7%, while BlackRock’s shares, though not entirely unscathed, exhibited a modest decline of 1.5%.

The Social Arrangement of BlackRock’s Proposal

According to media reports, BlackRock’s interest in AES stems from a desire to capitalize on the surging demand for electric power, particularly to fuel the burgeoning infrastructure of artificial intelligence data centers. AES, it appears, is a most suitable match, having previously declared itself open to “strategic alternatives” to preserve its independence as a publicly traded entity.

Yet, the matter is not without its complications. AES, though valued at under $11 billion, carries a considerable debt burden-approximately $29.5 billion net of cash. To acquire AES at today’s inflated price would, in effect, cost BlackRock’s subsidiary (Global Infrastructure Partners, as named) a sum exceeding $40 billion, inclusive of assumed liabilities.

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Is This a Prudent Union?

While the motivations of BlackRock are discernible, one must question whether this union is prudent. Assuming the veracity of these reports-and BlackRock has yet to confirm them-the acquirer would be paying an enterprise value of $40.2 billion for a company whose earnings over the past twelve months fell short of $1 billion, resulting in a debt-adjusted P/E ratio exceeding 40. Moreover, AES’s negative free cash flow of $2.6 billion renders its price-to-free-cash-flow ratio, in essence, infinite.

I confess, I find the proposition rather exorbitant. Let BlackRock pursue this match, if they so desire; I, for one, shall remain content in my modest observations. 📈

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2025-10-01 18:44