Tesla (TSLA) stock’s been climbing like a cat up a greasy pole-65% higher these past twelve moons. All on account of tales ’bout robotaxis shaped like tin turtles and metal men called Optimus. Elon Musk himself claims these contraptions’ll make Tesla richer than Croesus come Judgment Day. But hold your horses-74% o’ their coin still comes from selling fancy go-carts to Silicon Valley nabobs.
Now mark this: come October 2nd, Tesla’ll spill how many o’ these electric carriages they shoved out the door last quarter. Wall Street’s bookies reckon it’ll be a mite better than previous throws, but should you gamble your silver on it? Let’s poke the bear.
The Tale of Shrinking Deliveries
Tesla shoved 720k vehicles out the door first half o’ 2025-down 13% from last year’s tally. Revenue dipped 14%, profits cratered 31%. That’s like tryin’ to bail out the Titanic with a teacup. See, while Tesla’s playin’ king of the hill, cheaper EVs from rivals are swipin’ customers faster’n a pickpocket at a county fair.
Take Europe-Tesla’s sales plunged 36% August last year, even as EVs overall grew 30%. Meanwhile, China’s BYD tripled their European take, peddlin’ budget-friendly zappers to folks watchin’ their pennies tighter’n a new pair of boots. And Wall Street’s “optimism”? They’re callin’ for 445k deliveries-3.9% down from last year. But that’s only ’cause Yanks rushed to beat the expirin’ $7,500 tax credit. October’ll likely see a hangover worse’n a Methodist at a moonshine convention.
The Robot Promises: A Future Still Over the Horizon
Now about them shiny new doodads-Tesla’s FSD software’s about as free as a caged canary. Ain’t approved for solo flights anywhere in the U.S., which means their Cybercab’s stuck in the garage. Meanwhile, Alphabet’s Waymo’s already haulin’ folks ’round five cities without a soul in the driver’s seat-250k rides weekly, like clockwork.
As for Optimus, Musk claims it’ll rake in $10 trillion someday, outnumber humans by 2040. Sounds like a tall tale spun ’round a campfire. Production might start next year, but cranking up to a million units’ll take half a decade. That’s a long time in the technology racket-feels like waitin’ for the telegraph to replace the Pony Express.
So Should You Buy Before the Bell Rings?
Leavin’ aside them shaky delivery numbers, Tesla’s pricier than a gold-plated pocket watch. P/E ratio of 244? That’s seven times the Nasdaq-100’s humble 32.6. Makes Tesla look like the belle of the ball at a bankruptcy auction. High valuations work when growth’s sproutin’ like kudzu, but Tesla’s earnings are shinkin’ faster’n a Confederate flag at a Reconstruction-era parade.
Truth be told, this stock’s a tightrope walk without a net. If them robots stumble outta the lab next year-or worse, never show-holders’ll be holdin’ the bag at a yard sale. Save your coin ’til Tesla’s tales turn to actual coin, not just vapor and visions. 
And that Oct. 2 report? Might just be the canary in the coal mine. 🚀
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2025-09-29 11:23