Palantir’s 135% Rally and the Inevitable Crash

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has done what only a few stocks dare to do: doubled in a year, then doubled again. But here’s the rub-I’ve watched enough stock market “success stories” to know that when something smells like a free sandwich at a gas station, it’s usually just expired tuna in a bread wrapper.

The stock’s 135% gain in 2025 is impressive. So is the 373% surge in 2024. But let’s not confuse velocity with sustainability. Wall Street analysts, bless their collective optimism, still call it “overvalued.” Not a warning sign. A neon sign with a siren. And history? History is holding a megaphone: “You think this is overpriced now? Wait until next Tuesday.”

A Company Built on Data, Not Common Sense

Palantir sells decision intelligence and AI/ML software. That’s a fancy way of saying, “We help people look at numbers and pretend they mean something.” Its platforms let clients turn data into “actionable insights”-which, in layman’s terms, means they’ll spend $180 a share to figure out that their supply chain is broke. Meanwhile, the military uses it to avoid looking up from their screens. It’s a solution in search of a problem that isn’t actually a problem.

Forrester Research calls them a leader in AI/ML platforms. Great. So does the guy who runs a blog called “AI is the Future, Bro.” The market for data analytics is projected to grow 28% annually through 2030. Big numbers! But here’s the catch: when everyone’s selling the same thing, the first to leave town gets the door closed in their face.

Eight Quarters of Acceleration, One Quarter of Sanity?

Palantir’s Q2 results were… fine. Revenue jumped 48% to $1 billion. Customer count up 43%. Non-GAAP earnings up 77%. But let’s not forget the CTO’s gem: “Twenty years of grinding has built a unique moat.” If by “moat” he means a trench filled with expired stock tips and misplaced trust, then yes, it’s unique. And fragile.

Mizuho analysts called the execution “stunning.” Stunning? More like a magician who forgot to hide the rabbit. They also noted the PS ratio is “extreme.” Extreme like a hot dog on a stick at a baseball game. You know it’s bad, but you eat it anyway. Their average target price of $155 implies a 13% downside. That’s not a crash-it’s a polite cough before the full-blown sneeze.

The Most Expensive Stock in the S&P 500, Because Why Not?

Palantir trades at 131 times sales. That’s not a multiple; it’s a dare. The next most expensive stock, AppLovin, is at 41. So even if Palantir loses two-thirds of its value, it’d still be the most overpriced stock in the index. That’s like being the last person to notice the Titanic hit an iceberg.

History doesn’t lie. Snowflake peaked at 222x sales in 2020. Down 73%. SentinelOne? 148x in 2021. Down 82%. Zoom? 123x in 2020. Down 90%. The pattern is clear: When a stock smells like a Ponzi scheme with better branding, it eventually becomes one. And Palantir? It’s already there. Just waiting for the next investor to trip over the “Buy Now” button.

So here’s the bottom line: Palantir is a leader in a crowded field with a valuation that defies logic. It’s the financial equivalent of ordering a $500 steak dinner and then complaining about the side salad. The market may keep inflating its price for years, but when it finally collapses, it’ll be less of a correction and more of a slap to the face. Investors should either walk away or hold shares in amounts that won’t require a loan to cover the losses. 😒

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2025-09-24 12:37