Figma or Adobe? A Macro Strategist’s Diary

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Yes, I know-this is supposed to be about design software, not my personal financial disasters. But let’s start with the basics: Adobe and Figma could’ve been one company if regulators hadn’t said “nope” to a $20 billion merger. Now we’re left picking sides like children choosing teams at recess, except the stakes are higher and the snacks are stock options.

Figma (FIG), the scrappy upstart with a $26 billion market cap, is the startup that got away. Adobe (ADBE), the $150 billion tech titan, is the aging rockstar trying to stay relevant. One is a caffeinated designer’s dream; the other, a corporate behemoth with a slight case of growth fatigue. Which one deserves your hard-earned cash? Let’s dissect this like a particularly dramatic episode of Shark Tank.

The Case for Figma

Figma’s USP? Collaboration. It’s like Adobe’s Creative Cloud but with the charm of a startup and the pricing of a budget airline. At under $20/month, it’s the equivalent of bringing a salad to a barbecue-refreshing, cost-effective, and slightly virtuous. Adobe’s $60+/month Pro plan feels like paying for a first-class seat when you’re just trying to avoid turbulence.

But let’s talk numbers. Figma’s $249.6 million in sales for Q2 (up 41% YoY) is the financial equivalent of a standing ovation. And that $2.1 million operating profit? It’s not exactly a Fortune 500 résumé, but for a company still in its “figuring it out” phase, it’s the financial equivalent of a well-timed espresso shot. Throw in $60.6 million in adjusted free cash flow and a 129% net dollar retention rate, and you’ve got the makings of a company that’s not just surviving-it’s flirting with the future.

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The Case for Adobe

Adobe’s software is the Michelin-starred restaurant of design tools. Photoshop isn’t just software-it’s cultural shorthand for “I can fix this photo.” But here’s the rub: when you’re a $6 billion revenue juggernaut, 11% growth feels like a snooze at a TED Talk. Still, Adobe’s 36% operating margin is the financial equivalent of a trust fund-flexible, resilient, and quietly judgmental.

Adobe’s AI integration is its latest gambit, and the stock’s forward P/E of 15 and PEG of 1 make it look like a bargain basement find. But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room: a 35% drop in value over the past year. Is it a buying opportunity, or a “buyer beware” cautionary tale? Only time will tell, but Adobe’s margin of safety is as wide as a Las Vegas buffet line.

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Why I’d Go with Adobe (But Still Check Figma’s Homework)

Adobe’s name recognition is its crown jewel. Photoshop isn’t just software-it’s a verb. And those high margins? They’re the financial equivalent of a luxury spa day. If Adobe needs to cut prices to defend its turf, it can do so without breaking a sweat (or its balance sheet).

Figma’s got the energy, but Adobe has the staying power. Think of it like choosing between a Tesla and a Toyota-both get you to the destination, but one’s more likely to require roadside assistance. Adobe’s valuation dip feels less like a death spiral and more like a stock market version of “buy one, get one half off.”

Final tally: Adobe’s the safer bet for now, but keep an eye on Figma’s metrics. The world doesn’t need another Photoshop, but it might need a new generation of tools. And really, isn’t that what macro strategy is all about? 📈

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2025-09-18 17:59