In the grand cosmic spreadsheet of economic despair, Tesla (TSLA) currently occupies the ninth-largest cell, its market value of $1.4 trillion a number so vast it could be the universe’s most elaborate spreadsheet. CEO Elon Musk, whose ambitions often outpace his spreadsheets, has declared that Optimus, a humanoid robot (a “sentient toaster” if ever there was one), could add $25 trillion to the company’s value. If he’s correct-and history suggests he sometimes is-$50,000 invested today might eventually grow into a million dollars. A delightful thought, assuming time and probability aren’t secretly conspiring against you. (They almost always are.)
Investors, you see, are like passengers on a rocket ship with no windows, no instructions, and a pilot who occasionally tweets about politics. Tesla’s electric vehicle business, once a gleaming star, has dimmed slightly. Global EV sales are up 35% through July, but Tesla’s automotive revenue has declined over three quarters. Why? A combination of Musk’s “political juggling act with a porcupine” and a market now crowded with cheaper, more charming alternatives from companies like BYD and Geely. The result? Tesla’s market share has shrunk from 17% to 12% globally, a drop so sharp it could cut through steel. (Or optimism, depending on your perspective.)
Autonomous Ride-Sharing and Robotics: The Future, or Just a Fancy To-Do List?
Tesla’s foray into autonomous ride-sharing is like a silent, tireless waiter in a cosmic restaurant: promising, but slightly unsettling. The company has launched robotaxis in Austin, is testing in San Francisco, and recently got the nod to operate in Nevada. Its strategy-a reliance on computer vision over lidar and radar-is as unorthodox as using a magnifying glass to navigate a desert. “Cheaper and more scalable,” Musk insists, though scalability often means “we’ll figure it out as we go.”
Analysts estimate the global ride-sharing market could reach $900 billion by 2033. Uber’s CEO, Dana Khosrowshahi, claims autonomy could unlock a $1 trillion opportunity in the U.S. alone. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Optimus robot, which Musk calls “the most valuable product,” is being positioned as a solution to humanity’s labor woes. A noble goal, unless the robots decide to unionize. (They might. They’re already good at factory work.)
Valuation: The Art of Pricing the Improbable
Tesla’s stock currently trades at 169 times 2026 earnings, making it the third-most expensive in the S&P 500. This is a valuation that assumes the company will not only survive but also master the art of turning moonbeams into cash. For context, most stocks trade at multiples that suggest earnings will grow at a modest, believable rate. Tesla’s multiple, however, implies a future where robotaxis and Optimus robots generate revenue so fast it could make a black hole blush. Investors who lack faith in this vision should steer clear. Those who believe in it? Well, they might want to invest cautiously, as if buying a ticket to a planet that might not exist yet. 🚀
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2025-09-18 12:09