Shiba Inu’s Breakout Attempt Could Be a Trap Unless Price Clears One Key Level

by

Shiba Inu has surged by 7.2% over the past week, kindling the hopes of a breakout. Yet, those daring to ride this wave of momentum might want to pause and ponder. The token is nearing the upper edge of a pattern that often reverses without warning – false signals here could be perilous.

But wait, there’s more. A few sneaky hints from both on-chain and technical indicators have emerged, suggesting that despite the week’s glorious price climb, something foul may be brewing beneath the surface. There could be a trap for the bulls if they fail to stay vigilant.

Profit-Taking Metrics and Exchange Flows Signal Selling

The first hint of gloom comes from the profit percentage among addresses, a crucial on-chain metric tracking how many SHIB holders are in the green. At the dawn of September, a mere 38.57% of addresses were above water. That figure has since leapt to 44.11%, marking the third-highest local peak in a month.

Previous peaks have spelled the end of optimism. On August 13, when 47% of holders were in profit, SHIB corrected by 13%. On August 22, with 45.26% in profit, the token slumped nearly 10%. The current spike suggests that holders may once again be preparing to cash out.

Craving more juicy insights on tokens? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter and get the good stuff delivered straight to your inbox.

This can already be observed in the exchange net position change, which measures how much SHIB is flowing in and out of exchanges. On September 5, net outflows were around −836 billion SHIB, signaling that holders were pulling tokens off exchanges. By September 10, however, the flows flipped sharply to +788.91 billion SHIB.

That’s a 1.62 trillion SHIB swing, now resting comfortably on exchanges, waiting to be sold off.

In sum, these metrics are screaming “profit-taking,” and it’s already creeping into the charts like an unwanted guest at a dinner party.

Key Shiba Inu Price Levels to Watch

On the daily chart, SHIB is trapped within a symmetrical triangle. A close above $0.00001320 might look optimistic at first, but there’s more to this story than meets the eye.

For starters, the triangle pattern itself is neutral – it could break either way. So, an upside breakout doesn’t automatically guarantee a bullish move unless it’s accompanied by substantial buying pressure. The on-chain indicators mentioned earlier have thrown cold water on those expectations, at least for now.

Second, even though the price is creeping toward resistance, there’s something more sinister lurking: a hidden bearish divergence. This occurs when the price forms a lower high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, forms a higher high.

Hidden bearish divergence usually hints that the broader downtrend is far from over (SHIB has been down 1.35% year-on-year). So, even if SHIB manages to break above resistance, don’t be surprised if it fades like a ghost.

Now, let’s zoom out a bit and look at the bigger picture.

For a breakout to actually mean something, SHIB needs more than just a casual close above $0.00001320. Only a decisive move above $0.00001351 will shake off the bearish divergence, align the price with momentum, and pave the way for a possible rally to new highs.

Anything short of that, and we could be looking at a bull trap. The higher-low formation would still stand, sending SHIB back to square one.

If things go south, SHIB could fall back to support at $0.00001267. A deeper dive toward $0.00001181 would turn the whole structure bearish, and we’d all be left pondering how the breakout attempt failed so miserably.

Read More

2025-09-12 01:24