Dogecoin Price Eyes 50% Rally on ETF Frenzy, But One Risk Remains

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Dogecoin, the meme coin that never sleeps, is hanging around at $0.249. It’s up by 44.4% in the last three months, and over the last 24 hours, it’s managed to creep up 4.2%. Why? Well, it’s because people are all abuzz about the Dogecoin ETF ($DOJE), which is set to go live today. Surprise! Who knew that the dog’s favorite coin would be wrapped up in a fancy ETF?

In the last week, Dogecoin has surged by 16%, and the last 30 days show a respectable 12% increase. The charts, those cryptic little fortune tellers, say that there might be a 50% rally in the air if this ETF hype continues. But hold on-there’s a storm brewing just behind the rainbow.

Whales Buy The News, But Not Without The Risk

Whale watch alert! Dogecoin’s price isn’t just getting a boost from random people hoping for a laugh. No, it’s actually big whales buying in bulk. These are the ones holding over 1 billion DOGE each. Over the past 24 hours, this group of gluttonous coin hoarders scooped up more DOGE, bringing their stash from 71.67 billion to 71.90 billion DOGE. At a price near $0.25, that’s a whopping $57 million.

When whales move, the tides shift. They’ve been loading up, expecting prices to keep climbing, so they’re certainly not doing it for the beach vacation. But here’s the catch: while these whale-sized purchases are fun to talk about, there’s a risk. A risk that could turn the market from “dog days” to a cold, rainy Monday.

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Here’s the kicker: the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio has skyrocketed to 0.36. This is the highest it’s been in a month, up from 0.25 on September 1. So, what does that mean? It means that the market is awash with people sitting on profits, and history says that when the NUPL hits this kind of peak, well, it’s usually followed by a pretty sharp correction. You can thank your lucky stars for that!

Take a look back to August 22. The NUPL hit 0.34, and guess what happened next? Dogecoin fell from $0.24 to $0.21 in just a few sessions-a gut-wrenching 12% drop. The same thing happened on August 13 and August 17. So, yeah, it’s not all sunshine and roses when everyone is cashing out.

More About the DOGE ($DOJE) ETF

Now, let’s talk about this shiny new toy: the Dogecoin ETF ($DOJE), set to launch today (September 11, 2025). This isn’t just any ETF, mind you. No, it’s issued by REX Shares in collaboration with Osprey Funds, and it’s distributed by Foreside Fund Services-yep, the same team that helped bring us the Solana Staking ETF ($SSK). It’s like a reunion of sorts. The ETF will trade on NYSE Arca, and you’ll be able to buy it through major U.S. brokerages like Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and Robinhood. So no excuses for not getting in on the action.

Now, here’s where things get a bit wacky. This Dogecoin ETF wasn’t filed under the usual Securities Act of 1933. Instead, it’s under the 1940 Act, which is like the shortcut to the fast lane of approval. This gave REX and Osprey a massive advantage, avoiding the long SEC approval process. Yes, they just cut straight to the front of the line!

The fund carries a 1.5% expense ratio and has to hold at least 80% of its assets tied to Dogecoin. But don’t get too comfortable, because it also holds other regulated securities for “diversification,” whatever that means in the world of memes.

Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas had a laugh about it, calling DOJE “the first U.S. ETF to hold something with no utility.” He’s not wrong. This is an ETF that’s backed by a coin that started as a joke. Funny, right?

Meme coin ETF era about to kick off it looks like with $DOJE slated for a Thursday launch, albeit under the 40 Act a la $SSK. There’s a big group of ’33 Act-ers waiting for SEC approval still. Pretty sure this is first-ever US ETF to hold something that has no utility on purpose

– Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 9, 2025

Dogecoin Price Hints At Pattern Breakout, But Needs Confirmation

Now, technically speaking, Dogecoin is about to break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern. For those of you who don’t hang out with chart geeks, this means that once the price breaks either upwards or downwards, we’re in for a major move.

Right now, it looks like the breakout is leaning upward. But before we start popping champagne corks, we need confirmation. If today’s candle closes above $0.246, that’ll be the green light we need to get the party started. If confirmed, the target price could be $0.381, but of course, we have some resistance levels to get through first. $0.270 and $0.287 are waiting like the bouncers at a club. Good luck with that.

If the breakout holds, we could be looking at a nice ride to the top. But, as always, we have to keep an eye on NUPL. If profit-taking starts to take over, well, this might all come crashing down faster than you can say “buy the dip.”

If that happens, expect a 10-12% pullback, and if we dip below $0.224, Dogecoin could get knocked back down to reality. Hold tight, folks-it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

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2025-09-11 14:07