Meta’s 2030 Stock Forecast: A Trader’s Diary

Dear Diary,
Today I stared into the abyss of Meta’s stock price and found it staring back-calmly, smugly, as if it knew something I didn’t. But here we are, mid-2025, and the market’s latest love affair with META has me scribbling notes in the margins of my coffee-stained portfolio. Let’s dissect this with the precision of someone who once lost $300 on a meme stock and still calls it “a learning experience.”

Meta’s recent earnings report? A masterclass in corporate seduction. Revenue up 22%-a number that makes even my most jaded analyst friends sigh. Operating margin at 43%? That’s the financial equivalent of a six-pack. And those ad impressions? Up 11% with a 9% price hike. Who knew ad impressions could be so… thrilling? 🤓

But let’s not forget the real drama: AI. Meta’s throwing its weight into AI like it’s the last buffet at a Vegas casino. Meanwhile, the buybacks and dividends? A sweetener for shareholders who’ve grown tired of watching their portfolios flirt with crypto volatility. Still, can this train keep accelerating? I think so. But let’s not get carried away-this is a diary, not a Bloomberg terminal.

Numbers That Make My Spreadsheets Swoon

Q2 2025: $47.5 billion in revenue. Operating margin: 43%. Diluted EPS: $7.14. Free cash flow: $8.6 billion. Capital expenditures? A hefty $17 billion. All while Q1’s 16% revenue growth and 37% EPS jump are now the equivalent of “small talk at a cocktail party.”

And the cash? $47 billion in the bank. Enough to fund my next therapy session and still have change for a latte. Repurchases: $9.8 billion. Dividends: $1.3 billion. Meta’s playing the long game like it’s a chess match against the market itself.

Diary, What’s the 2030 Playbook?

Here’s the rub: Earnings growth and the multiple. Let’s start with TTM EPS of $27.62. Grow it 10-15% annually. By 2030, that’s $45-$56. Throw in a 24-26 P/E multiple, and we’re looking at $1,080-$1,460 per share. A midpoint of $1,270 if you’re feeling optimistic. That’s a 12% CAGR, which is the financial equivalent of a brisk walk-steady, not a sprint, but not a crawl either.

Of course, there’s the small matter of capital expenditures ($66-72 billion in 2025) and the regulatory tightrope in Europe. Plus, ad budgets are as fickle as a dating app user’s attention span. But Meta’s AI-driven “personal superintelligence” (a phrase that makes me question my own)? It’s the kind of buzzword that could make even Warren Buffett raise an eyebrow.

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24.
But here’s the thing: If Meta’s EPS compounds in the low teens and the market keeps its 20s P/E appetite, the long-term math checks out. The path? Winding. The destination? Potentially glittering. Just don’t expect me to stop checking my positions every 30 minutes. 🚀

2025-09-09 05:15

Numbers That Make My Spreadsheets Swoon

Diary, What’s the 2030 Playbook?

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