Novo Nordisk: A Stock or a Snake Oil?

The madness of the market has once again spun its web, dangling Novo Nordisk (NVO) like a bloodied steak in front of investors. The latest rumor? That its anti-obesity drug Wegovy is a “miracle” that cuts heart risks by 57%. But let’s cut through the hype and ask: Is this a golden goose, or just another batshit crazy financial hallucination?

See, the so-called “Steer study” isn’t some noble scientific crusade. It’s a real-world data mess-a chaotic collage of patient anecdotes and half-baked statistics. And yet, Wall Street’s hucksters are already painting Novo as the next Warren Buffett in a lab coat. Eli Lilly (LLY)’s Zepbound, the other contender, got shafted in the headlines, but let’s not forget: It’s a dual-agonist beast with more power but less stomach for the ride. The question isn’t just which drug is better-it’s which one people will tolerate long enough to matter.

Proof of Superiority? Please.

Let’s dissect this “57% risk reduction” like it’s a cadaver at a meth lab. The Steer study isn’t a randomized trial-it’s a dumpster fire of real-world data. Patients chose their drugs, their doctors chose for them, and the whole thing reeks of confirmation bias. Zepbound’s faster weight loss? That’s a double-edged sword, folks. It’s a chemical circus, and Wegovy’s GLP-1 simplicity is just a back-alley fix for people who can’t handle the big leagues.

But here’s the kicker: The 57% number only holds up if you ignore the 40% of Zepbound patients who bailed on the drug. Once you factor in treatment gaps (because no one wants to vomit for six months), the risk reduction plummets to 29%. The numbers are dancing in the shadows of statistical alchemy, and the market’s buying it like it’s a free sample at a county fair.

And let’s not forget the follow-up times: 4.3 months for Zepbound, 3.8 for Wegovy. A few weeks in the grand scheme of heart disease? It’s like measuring a hurricane with a ruler. The “higher event rate” for Zepbound? That’s just time playing its sick joke on the data.

Plenty of Room for a Disaster?

The GLP-1 arms race is a toxic carnival, and Novo Nordisk is just another ringmaster in a trench coat. Semaglutide (Wegovy) has been around since 2017, while Zepbound’s tirzepatide is the fresh-faced upstart. But here’s the rub: Semaglutide’s $17.7B in sales for 2025 H1? That’s not growth-it’s a financial hemorrhage. Zepbound’s $14.7B? A polite cough in comparison.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The market’s already priced in a $150B GLP-1 apocalypse by 2030, and Wegovy’s “tolerability” angle is just a PR stunt. The Select trial’s 20% heart risk reduction? That’s the real magic trick, but the market’s too busy chasing headlines to notice. And let’s not forget-Wegovy’s the only GLP-1 approved for liver disease. That’s not a feature; it’s a desperate loophole.

A Bargain? Or a Bargain Bin?

Novo Nordisk’s 16% sales growth and 25% profit surge sound impressive until you realize the company’s warning of a slowdown. In August, they told the world to “expect 10-16% growth” in 2025. That’s not a slowdown-it’s a full-on retreat. And yet, the stock’s trading at 14.6x forward earnings, a price that screams “value trap” louder than a telemarketer at 2 a.m.

Double-digit growth? That’s a fantasy. The company’s already swimming in a sea of patents and regulatory hurdles, and the market’s treating it like a private island. But here’s the truth: This stock isn’t undervalued-it’s a ticking time bomb wrapped in a lab coat. And the “beaten-down” price? That’s just the calm before the hurricane.

So, is Novo Nordisk a buy? Only if you enjoy feeding the beast of speculation with a handful of salt and a bottle of tequila. But remember, in the end, the market doesn’t care about your portfolio-it’s a hungry animal, and it always wins. 🐍

2025-09-03 12:31

Proof of Superiority? Please.

Plenty of Room for a Disaster?

A Bargain? Or a Bargain Bin?

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