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OKLO”>
Nvidia’s early edge
In the late 1990s, Nvidia’s GPUs were the darlings of the gaming community, much like a well-tailored waistcoat in a world of rumpled shirts. Yet, under the stewardship of Jensen Huang, the company saw beyond the confines of video games, recognizing the latent potential of parallel processing chips. Fast forward to today, and these chips have become the backbone of AI, much like a well-stocked larder is to a banquet.
The key takeaway here is that while Nvidia’s GPU business started with limited traction, it ultimately achieved true product-market fit-laying the foundation for an empire as the use cases for the chips multiplied and the technology became indispensable.
Oklo looks promising, but…
Oklo, with its connections to the Department of Energy and the U.S. military, is like a young gentleman with a distinguished set of acquaintances. The presence of Sam Altman on its board adds a touch of celebrity, akin to having a famous relative at a family gathering. However, while such associations may lend a certain cachet, they do not, in and of themselves, guarantee success.
Beyond star power, Oklo also benefits from a growing network of high-profile partnerships. Collaborations with the Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. military, and private sector infrastructure players such as Vertiv and Liberty Energy underscore the company’s credibility. These alliances not only offer some validation to Oklo’s technology but also highlight the strategic importance of its microreactors as potential sources for clean and efficient energy.
…comparing it to Nvidia is a stretch
Yet, here lies the rub. While Nvidia’s GPUs were already in production and gaining traction, Oklo has yet to build a single operational reactor. It is as if one were to invest in a company that promises to build a bridge, but has not yet laid a single stone. The stock’s meteoric rise, while impressive, seems more akin to a passing fancy than a solid foundation.
The stock chart above illustrates this disconnect. Oklo’s shares have surged by nearly 800% over the past year, pushing its market cap to $9.7 billion-a figure that equals nearly 26 times Nvidia’s combined 1999 and 2000 revenue. That type of premium is difficult to justify for a company with no revenue, a hefty capital expenditure budget, and a path forward that will hinge largely on winning regulatory approvals.
Oklo stock remains a speculative gamble, and its narrative increasingly resembles what one would expect from a meme stock rather than a sustainable growth story. Its rally over the past year has been largely fueled by hype-driven momentum and enthusiasm from unsuspecting retail investors.
In my view, Oklo is far from the next Nvidia. If anything, the stock already appears to have priced in most (if not all) of its potential upside. Chasing the stock’s current momentum could leave investors holding the bag when reality kicks in.
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2025-08-23 15:01