Energy Stocks and the Shadows of 2025

The world of energy stocks is like a poker game in a smoky backroom-everyone thinks they’ve got the winning hand until the cards hit the table. I already own my share of Chevron (CVX), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), and EQT Corp. (EQT). But there’s something about these three that keeps pulling at me, like a loose thread on an old overcoat. Maybe it’s greed. Maybe it’s just boredom. Either way, I’m watching them closely.

Here’s why I’m thinking about doubling down on this trio before the house decides to reshuffle the deck.

A river of cash-or so they say

Chevron’s got its eye on the horizon, promising a flood of free cash flow starting next year. They’re spinning yarns about expansion projects in Kazakhstan and the Gulf of Mexico, not to mention their shiny new acquisition of Hess. It all sounds like a symphony orchestra tuning up for opening night: lots of noise, but will it play?

The numbers look good on paper-$12.5 billion more in annual free cash flow by 2025, they claim. That’s enough to drown most companies in liquidity. And sure, Chevron’s dividend history reads like a fairy tale, with 38 years of raises and plans to buy back billions in stock. But every rose has its thorn. What happens when those big projects don’t deliver? Or when oil prices take another nosedive? This isn’t a charity gala; it’s Wall Street. Promises are cheap.

An MLP riding the wave-or drowning in it

Enterprise Products Partners is playing the long game, commissioning $6 billion worth of projects this year alone. New gas plants, pipelines, terminals-the works. It’s like watching someone build a sandcastle while the tide rolls in. Sure, it looks impressive now, but how long can it last?

They talk about capital spending dropping by $2 billion in 2026, freeing up cash for distributions and buybacks. A 7% yield sounds nice if you’re sipping coffee on your yacht, but what if the market turns sour? The MLP structure is as fragile as a spider’s web in a hurricane. One wrong move, and the whole thing collapses. Still, there’s something tantalizing about a company that knows how to grow even when the odds are stacked against it.

The king of gas-or a house of cards?

EQT Corp. calls itself the largest and lowest-cost natural gas producer in the country. Sounds impressive, doesn’t it? Like a heavyweight champion flexing his muscles before the fight. But dig a little deeper, and you start to see cracks in the armor.

The Mountain Valley Pipeline was supposed to be their golden ticket, and it has delivered some serious cash flow-almost $2 billion in the last three quarters. But EQT hasn’t exactly been shy about spending that money. Between acquiring Olympus Energy and paying down debt, they’re moving fast. Too fast, maybe. Debt reduction targets sound great in press releases, but what happens if demand for natural gas doesn’t live up to the hype? AI data centers and reshored manufacturing won’t save everyone.

The devil in the details

So here we are, staring down the barrel of 2025. Chevron, Enterprise, and EQT-all promising growth, all dangling carrots in front of investors like horses chasing a mirage. Free cash flow, dividends, buybacks-it’s enough to make your head spin. But let’s not forget: markets have a way of humbling even the cockiest players.

Maybe I’ll buy more shares. Maybe I’ll sit this one out and watch from the sidelines. The truth is, nobody knows what’s coming next. Not me, not the analysts, not even the CEOs running these companies. All we can do is place our bets and hope the dice roll our way. After all, the future is just a well-dressed stranger waiting to pick your pocket. 🎲

2025-08-20 11:19

A river of cash-or so they say

An MLP riding the wave-or drowning in it

The king of gas-or a house of cards?

The devil in the details

Read More