Consider the cruel jest of time: had you cast your $10,000 into the furnace of Nvidia (NVDA) on the day of its birth in 1999 and held fast, your fortune would now swell to $42.4 million. Even the timid soul who hesitated until 2015, casting their coin in the shadow of the dot-com ghosts, would find their $10,000 now a gilded $3.58 million. Yet what madness drives the human spirit to chase such mirages in the desert of the present? To demand of the market, “Can this madness still yield salvation?”
What it would take
The infernal arithmetic is simple: to turn $10,000 into $1 million, Nvidia must ascend 100-fold. A feat it achieved in less than nine years, a feat that now demands it swallow the world whole. For the GPU titan, now crowned with a $4.2 trillion market cap, to deliver such a miracle, its valuation must balloon to $420 trillion. A sum that defies the very architecture of human reason, for the GDP of all nations combined last year was but $110.5 trillion. To achieve this, Nvidia must grow to 3.8 times the sum of human labor and toil. Easy, peasy, right? One might as well ask a beggar to count the stars while blindfolded.
Potential scenarios
Two paths lie before us, both etched in the trembling hand of speculation. The first: Nvidia ascends to the role of Prometheus, bestowing upon humanity a teleportation device that renders distance and time obsolete. Or perhaps, in a more likely but equally absurd turn, it births an artificial general intelligence (AGI)—a child of silicon and ambition that surpasses the sum of human intellect. The GEAR group, that modern-day alchemist’s guild, toils in secret to forge such a being. Yet is this not the same folly that led mankind to build towers to the heavens, only to be scattered by the wrath of the divine?
The second path is more mundane, yet no less fraught: a patient pilgrimage of 31% annual earnings growth for 17 years. A pilgrimage that demands not only time but the unshakable faith that Nvidia will stumble upon some new alchemy to fuel its ascent. Yet even this requires the company to grasp the elusive breakthrough—the teleportation device, the AGI—that will serve as the grail of its next epoch. The market, that fickle oracle, will demand blood if it falters.
Facing long odds
Is it possible? A whisper in the tempest, perhaps. Is it probable? No. The odds are a chasm, a void that swallows all but the most delirious of dreamers. Yet the investor’s heart is a crucible of contradictions: part sinner, part saint, part gambler, part prophet. I suspect Nvidia will still make millionaires—but not in the manner of the feverish dreamer. It will require patience, a larger stake, and perhaps the humility to acknowledge that the market is a riddle wrapped in a paradox. If you seek to turn $10,000 into $1 million, you may need to look to the shadows of the past, to the forgotten Nvidias of 1999, where the ghosts of innovation still whisper their secrets. 🎭
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2025-07-28 11:57