Why Did Tilray Stock Pop Today?

This morning, Alliance Global Partners lowered their projected price for Tilray Brands (TLRY) shares from $1 to $0.75 per share, a reduction of 25%. As The Fly reported, this news typically impacts a stock’s value, but in this case, the reaction might not be as you’d expect.

As of 2:05 p.m. ET Tuesday, Tilray stock is up 15.8%.

What Alliance Global said about Tilray

It’s rather puzzling why investors seem unfazed by Alliance Global lowering its price prediction for Tilray, given that the analyst points out “weakness” in both international cannabis sales and alcohol sales. Notably, Tilray derives a quarter of its revenue and nearly half of its gross profit from the sale of alcoholic beverages, making it more than just a marijuana stock.

I, an ardent observer of the market, find myself in agreement with Alliance Global’s analysts who have revised their forecasts for Tilray’s earnings this year, lowering both the projected earnings and the price target. Fortunately for investors like myself, Tilray’s stock currently trades just a few cents above the new price target. Despite this close proximity, Alliance Global has assigned the stock a neutral rating.

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Is Tilray stock a buy?

Despite being labeled as “neutral,” it can still be considered favorable in some aspects. Tilray hasn’t managed to post a profit since 2018, which was when marijuana stocks were at their peak among momentum traders. Importantly, the company has never produced positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) up to this point.

As an optimistic investor, I’ve got my fingers crossed for Tilray, but even the most hopeful analysts don’t expect profitability before 2029 at the soonest. They do predict positive free cash flow in 2026 though, and that’s a step in the right direction. However, given the company’s history, I’ll need to witness this happening myself to truly believe it. If Tilray manages to report positive FCF next year, I’d be more than happy to take another look at their stock.

For the time being, however, I can only call Tilray stock a sell.

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2025-07-22 22:33