Enthusiasm for AI start-up CoreWeave is running high among investors. As an AI cloud service provider, it’s expanding its capabilities swiftly, and recently unveiled plans for a new $6 billion data center construction. The company’s stock price has surged since its initial public offering (IPO) this year, giving it a market capitalization of $70 billion now.
Although CoreWeave appears to be a precarious business, burdened with debt, and subject to the volatile trends of AI cloud spending, it presents a high risk for investors in the future. On the other hand, I foresee that two companies, Coupang (CPNG) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI), will outgrow CoreWeave within the next decade. Here’s why:
1. Coupang: A leading e-commerce company in China, known for its fast delivery services and strong customer loyalty. With continuous investments in technology and infrastructure, it has the potential to expand globally and capture a significant market share.
2. SoFi Technologies: A digital personal finance company offering products like student loan refinancing, mortgages, and wealth management services. With its innovative approach to financial services and growing user base, SoFi could potentially disrupt traditional banking and gain considerable traction in the coming years.
Building on existing business models
Coupang, a technology powerhouse hailing from South Korea, aspires to replicate the achievements of Amazon in the U.S. It boasts an e-commerce site, its own delivery network, and a subscription service that offers free shipping and discounts to users, reminiscent of Amazon Prime. Does this sound familiar? The platform currently serves 23.4 million active customers in South Korea, which is nearly every household in the country.
In the last three months, our gross profit increased by 31% compared to the same period the previous year, without considering fluctuations in foreign currencies. This growth was primarily fueled by the enhanced efficiency of Coupang’s all-encompassing commerce platform. Now, the company is broadening its scope, venturing into new territories and experimenting with diverse business strategies.
Recently, Coupang expanded into Taiwan, a prosperous nation home to approximately 23 million people. The company’s e-commerce business is expanding rapidly, with its Developing Offerings segment experiencing a 78% increase in net revenues year-on-year, primarily due to growth in Taiwan. In the last quarter, these new offerings generated $1 billion in revenue, which represents a substantial portion of Coupang’s total revenue. By 2025, these revenues are projected to approach $30 billion, leaving ample opportunities for further expansion.
Recently, Coupang has officially revealed their AI-focused cloud service, named Coupang Intelligent Cloud, to the public. This sector aims to capitalize on the rising spending in cloud and artificial intelligence within South Korea. The government there is offering grants to boost growth, which presents a budding opportunity. Although it’s still an emerging field, given its geographical advantage, Coupang seems well-prepared to seize this chance. Notably, American tech giants are unlikely to secure government grants for building data centers in South Korea.
Currently, the market value of Coupang stands at an impressive $56 billion. Given the array of diverse possibilities it has, I firmly believe that Coupang could prove to be a more profitable investment compared to CoreWeave. In fact, I anticipate that Coupang will grow into a significantly larger enterprise within the next ten years.
High growth in consumer finance
SoFi has evolved significantly over the past ten years, starting as a company focused on student loan refinancing, but has since expanded into a comprehensive digital financial service platform in the US. Today, it offers banking services, investment opportunities, savings accounts, insurance plans, budgeting tools, and lending products all within its user-friendly mobile app.
The allure of switching banks to SoFi has been significant, leading to a surge in customer deposits. By the first quarter of 2025, these deposits had reached $27 billion, marking an increase from $26 billion in the last quarter of 2024. Although SoFi’s deposit levels are far from those of traditional banks, this growth opens up a vast opportunity for SoFi to seize market share from established players. With lower operating expenses, SoFi can offer higher returns on deposits, a benefit appreciated by many customers. Furthermore, it encourages its customers to explore additional services such as credit cards, loans, and investment opportunities.
Last quarter, SoFi’s revenue, after adjustments, increased by 33% compared to the same period the previous year, reaching $771 million. This marks a significant milestone as the company has now become profitable, reporting a net income of $71 million. Previous investor concerns about profitability seem to be alleviated. With more individuals opting for SoFi’s services, the company stands to benefit from its expand-and-consolidate business model, potentially witnessing revenue and earnings growth for many years ahead. Over a decade, I anticipate a steady increase in deposits, revenue, and earnings for SoFi, which could lead to a continuous upward trajectory for the stock price.
In its current market value of $23 billion, SoFi is notably smaller compared to CoreWeave at the moment. However, given a decade is quite a stretch, and considering CoreWeave’s high-risk nature with significant potential downfalls, I am inclined to believe that SoFi will surpass CoreWeave in terms of market cap within the next ten years.
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2025-07-19 12:01