Why BigBear.ai Stock Skyrocketed 52.6% in the First Half of 2025 and Has Kept Surging

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In the first half of 2025, the stock of BigBear.ai (BBAI) experienced a significant uptrend, with its share price climbing an impressive 52.6%. As per data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, this growth outpaced the approximate 5.5% increase in the overall level of the S&P 500 index during the same period.

In spite of significant fluctuations, shares of BigBear.ai rose substantially during the first two quarters of the year as investors remain optimistic about artificial intelligence (AI) software and service providers. Although the stock has shown volatility in the latter part of the year, it has still achieved considerable gains in July to date.

BigBear.ai stock surged as investors doubled down on AI plays

2025’s initial phase witnessed considerable fluctuations in the valuation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks, yet overall, they tended to move upward with optimism. Notably, BigBear.ai experienced notable ups and downs at the beginning of the year, followed by a substantial surge in February.

Regardless of DeepSeek’s R-1 AI model’s volatility, Palantir’s shares experienced significant increases at the start of the year’s trading. The company’s focus on defense-related AI software contributed to a positive evaluation trend, and enthusiasm about the business also positively impacted BigBear.ai’s share price. Some investors saw similarities between the two companies and viewed BigBear.ai as a company with substantial growth potential in the defense software-and-services sector, which, in turn, fueled the rise of its stock.

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Despite posting two relatively lackluster quarterly reports this year, BigBear.ai’s share price has still managed to achieve significant growth in the first half of 2025. In March, they published their fourth-quarter results from the previous fiscal year, showing a 8% rise in revenue to $43.8 million compared to the same period last year, but also reporting a loss of $0.43 per share during that time. Analysts on Wall Street had expected a profit of around $0.05 per share on revenues of $54.6 million instead.

In May, the company released its first-quarter results for this year, revealing that the sales and profits for the quarter were lower than Wall Street’s expectations. The revenue stood at $34.8 million with a loss of $0.25 per share. Analysts had estimated approximately $36.3 million in sales and a smaller loss of $0.06 per share. Sales grew by only 5% compared to the same period last year, and the profit margins were less than expected. However, the stock saw a surge after the report was published as investors anticipated potential opportunities in the defense AI sector.

What’s next for BigBear.ai?

In the second half of this year, BigBear.ai’s stock has persistently increased, despite some fluctuations. This month alone, its share price has risen approximately 5% due to active trading. The upward trend is attributed to positive analyst predictions about the company and a growing interest in defense AI technologies.

Based on advice for sales ranging from $160 million to $180 million, BigBear’s midpoint target implies about 7.5% annual revenue increase compared to the $158.2 million it earned last year. Currently valued at around $2.1 billion, the company is trading at approximately 12.4 times the average analyst forecast for this year’s sales. Although there could be a significant boost in sales with new contracts, the stock appears risky given its valuation compared to its sales growth rate at the moment.

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2025-07-17 08:44