3 US Economic Events Driving Crypto Market Sentiment This Week

As an analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed numerous economic cycles and their impact on various asset classes, including Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. In this week, three significant US economic events are worth watching for crypto traders and investors, as they continue to influence BTC prices in 2024.


This week, three significant U.S. economic occurrences are catching the attention of cryptocurrency traders and investors. The focus is fueled by the ongoing impact of American macroeconomic statistics on Bitcoin (BTC) and overall crypto market prices in 2024, following a period of insignificance in the previous year.

Currently, Bitcoin is slightly below the significant $100,000 mark, staying at around $98,000, following a dip over the weekend that took it down to approximately $95,000.

Minutes of Fed’s November FOMC Meeting

Attention shifts towards the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Tuesday, November 26, as they release the minutes from their November 6 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. Traders and investors are eagerly anticipating these minutes to gain insights into how the policymakers viewed the economy prior to the November gathering.

The minutes might contain some dialogue regarding potential economic effects stemming from the US election results. These discussions are expected to occur after policymakers decided to lower interest rates by 0.25%, which was a follow-up to the initial 0.50% reduction in September. Market participants will be eager to glean any hints about whether the rate of reductions might slow down from this point onward.

In the meantime, the data indicates that the U.S. economy remains strong. However, concerns persist that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies could lead to increased inflation, which might lessen the necessity for low interest rates.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been keeping an eye on the potential impact of Donald Trump’s election win on US interest rate policy. According to Sheila Block, an economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Trump’s proposed policies could lead to higher inflation risks in the US. This is primarily due to the increased tariffs he plans to implement, a move traditionally associated with rising prices within the economy.

One method by which Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes might impact Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is through shaping the general market mood. If the minutes convey a dovish or hawkish tone, it could sway market predictions and prompt adjustments in investor behavior.

Initial Jobless Claims

One significant economic development happening this coming Wednesday, November 27, is the unveiling of the initial jobless claims figures. Over the summer and fall, there has been apprehension about the labor market due to increasing jobless claims, higher unemployment rates, and slower monthly employment gains. This data had an impact on the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 0.5% in September.

Following that point, the labor market statistics have surpassed expectations, with the unemployment rate decreasing from its peak of 4.3% to 4.1%. Notably, the initial jobless claims data for the week ending November 16 stood at 213,000, falling below the anticipated 220,000. This figure indicates a positive trend in the job market.

Last week, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. dropped by 6,000 to reach 213,000 – the smallest number since April. According to the editor of the Lead-Lag Report, this indicates a robust labor market.

Over the past year, weekly unemployment claims have been gradually decreasing since hitting an all-time high in October. Although the number of initial jobless claims is declining, a surge in continuing claims suggests that companies are focusing on keeping their employees. Unfortunately, for those who lose their jobs, finding new employment has become more difficult.

As an analyst, I’d rephrase the statement as follows: “While initial jobless claims continue to move sluggishly, continuing claims have reached a three-year peak. This suggests that employers aren’t actively dismissing workers, but they also seem reluctant to hire.

At present, there seems to be a positive development on the employment aspect of the Federal Reserve’s two-part mission. If this trend persists, it indicates that economic struggles are easing and the job market is improving. This progress might stimulate higher consumer spending and investment in conventional assets such as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

US PCE Inflation

Market participants involved with cryptocurrencies will keep a close eye on the October US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data coming out on Wednesday, as this is the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicator for inflation. Additionally, the November PCE index scheduled for release on Wednesday should be closely monitored. This data will reveal whether inflation was still decelerating in November.

According to data from MarketWatch, it is anticipated that the Monthly Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) will climb by 0.2%, and the Annual PCE rate will hold steady at 2.3%. Moreover, the Core PCE is projected to increase monthly by 0.3% and yearly by 2.8%.

Economic anxiety can arise when Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures increase, suggesting potential elevations in overall inflation. If the PCE-inflation surpasses predictions, it might cause a decrease in the strength of the U.S. dollar as investors predict possible monetary policy changes, including raising interest rates. A less powerful USD tends to favor Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because their value may negatively correlate with that of the U.S. dollar.

When faced with situations like these, investors might consider investing in digital currencies such as Bitcoin as a means to protect their wealth from the impact of inflation. Many people view cryptocurrencies much like gold, as a form of value storage during times when inflation is on the rise.

At present, the Federal Reserve is confident that inflation is almost reaching its 2% goal. To counteract the high inflation spikes experienced over the last two years, policymakers have kept interest rates at record levels. With this in mind, traders and investors are keeping a close eye on price trends, looking for encouraging signals that might lead the Fed to reduce interest rates.

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2024-11-25 11:36