As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience under my belt, I find BlackRock’s recent recommendation for a 1% to 2% allocation in Bitcoin intriguing. Having closely observed the evolution of financial markets, I can’t help but draw parallels between this move and the advent of the internet in the late 90s – a game-changer that reshaped industries and created new ones.
The global investment giant, BlackRock (managing $11.5 trillion in assets), has published a report suggesting that about 1-2% of a typical 60/40 investment portfolio (where 60% is stocks and 40% is bonds) should be invested in Bitcoin.
Based on a Forbes report, Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer for ETFs and Index Investments, leads the analysis that liken’s Bitcoin to the well-known tech companies (often referred to as the “magnificent seven”), such as Amazon and Apple.
Approximately six companies have an average market value of about 2.5 trillion dollars each, and together they make up around 35% of the main stock market index, the S&P 500. If BlackRock’s suggested allocation were implemented across its equity assets, it could potentially create a new demand for Bitcoin ranging from $50 to $100 billion.
The report adds that the “magnificent seven” provide an “example of single portfolio holdings that account for a comparatively large share of portfolio risk” and while they differ from BTC, these factors “make them a useful starting point for assessing the risk of a single holding.”
BlackRock acknowledges Bitcoin’s unusual lack of connection with conventional market trends, suggesting it could serve as a beneficial diversifier. This low association has been noticeable since June 2022, primarily due to factors such as decreasing trust in traditional financial systems and escalating geopolitical conflicts.
Today, BlackRock released a new report suggesting an investment between 1-2% in a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), marking the first time they’ve provided a specific allocation. This move comes in response to the frequent questions they’ve been receiving about the right amount to invest.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 12, 2024
Cohen’s report mentioned a significant adverse occurrence happening in 2022. This led to an increase in interest rates in 2023, causing investors to adopt a very cautious approach by primarily investing in safe, liquid assets such as cash equivalents. However, this year, they are confronted with the need to accept investment risk, lower rates, and consider a long-term distribution of their assets.
According to BlackRock’s findings, investing 1% of your portfolio in their research equates to roughly a 2% increase in total risk. On the other hand, increasing that investment to 2% in Bitcoin can bump up the overall risk to around 5%. The firm cautions that larger investments could greatly amplify risk. Cohen also highlighted that future price growth might become challenging as the return patterns of Bitcoin could transform considerably when the portfolio allocation reaches a stage where it may be more tactical, similar to gold.
Gold experienced a 30% increase this year, largely due to heightened geopolitical conflicts and persistent inflation concerns that have impacted investor holdings.
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2024-12-12 21:08