$1.6 Billion Crypto Options Expiry Could Trigger Big Moves in Bitcoin & Ethereum

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As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I find myself cautiously optimistic about the current state of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The upcoming expiration of these options contracts, worth nearly $1.6 billion combined, could certainly inject some volatility into the market in the coming days.

1 billion dollars’ worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options and an extra 510 million dollars’ worth of Ethereum (ETH) options contracts are due to expire today, October 11, 2024, potentially adding instability to the already volatile cryptocurrency market, which is also bracing for a $1.3 billion impact from an upcoming earthquake.

Approaching $1.6 billion in total worth, the impending expiration of these contracts involving 18,000 Bitcoins and 212,000 Ethereums may lead to heightened market fluctuations over the next few days. As per experts from Greeks.live, the balance between put and call options for Bitcoin options leans towards puts, with a ratio of 0.91. This indicates a tilt towards put options, which grant holders the option—but not the requirement—to sell Bitcoin at a specified price.

According to the analysts’ findings, the price level that could cause most Bitcoin options to become worthless is around $62,000. For Ethereum options, their report states that there are fewer put (protective) options compared to call (speculative) options, with a significant point of maximum risk or loss at approximately $2,450.

On October 11th, there will be the expiration of two sets of options:

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) October 11, 2024

Currently, Bitcoin is being traded approximately $61,000 for one BTC, having experienced a substantial decline earlier in the month that caused its value to plummet from around $64,000 down to roughly $60,000. However, it’s showing signs of recovery at the moment.

Currently, Ethereum stands at approximately $2,400, marking a 1.7% increase over the past week, coinciding with the broader crypto market’s recovery. Analysts at Greek.live predict that a shift in the market could be imminent due to repeated challenges on Ethereum’s support line at $2,300 and Bitcoin’s level at $60,000.

Over the last three days, I’ve noticed a significant movement in the Bitcoin market: large holders, often referred to as ‘whales,’ have either sold or redistributed approximately 30,000 BTC. This action equates to over $1.8 billion worth of the leading cryptocurrency, according to recent reports by CryptoGlobe.

The drop in Bitcoin’s price aligns with a recent forecast indicating that Bitcoin might experience a strong bullish trend, potentially reaching over $80,000. However, before this upward surge, a period of sell-off might occur, causing Bitcoin to dip below the $50,000 level.

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2024-10-11 16:37