Good heavens, what fresh mischief is this? The ever-so-clever Mr. Willy Woo has proclaimed that the next crypto bear market shall be a trial most severe, wrought by a business cycle downturn heretofore unseen in this realm of digital curiosities. 🌪️💰
“Mark my words,” declared Mr. Woo with an air of gravitas, “this impending calamity shall be defined by a cycle so oft forgotten, it might as well be a distant relation one pretends not to know.” 😏📉
He further elucidated that we have hitherto endured two cycles, intertwined like the most vexing of Gordian knots, predicated upon the Bitcoin halving events every four years and the M2 global money supply. 🪙🔀
“Central banks, those meddlesome busybodies, inject their M2 debasement in four-year cycles, and both cycles superimpose with a regularity most tiresome,” he remarked, his tone dripping with the faintest hint of disdain. 🏦💸
Yet, the true villain of this tale, according to Mr. Woo, shall be the business cycle itself. “The last downturns of note occurred in the bygone eras of 2008 and 2001, long before crypto markets were but a twinkle in the eye of innovation,” he observed. 📈📉
“Should we be visited by a business cycle downturn, akin to those of 2001 or 2008, it shall test the mettle of BTC. Will it plummet like the tech stocks of yore, or shall it hold its ground like gold? A conundrum most intriguing!” 🧐⚖️
Business Cycles: The Bane of Liquidity
A business cycle downturn, my dear reader, is a period of economic woe wherein GDP shrinks, unemployment swells, consumer spending wanes, and business activity grinds to a halt. It is, in essence, a recession, a word that sends shivers down the spine of even the most stoic investor. 🌀💼
Mr. Woo’s contention is that crypto markets, far from being isolated islands of prosperity, are inextricably linked to these broader economic cycles, particularly through their impact on liquidity. A truth most inconvenient, indeed. 🌊💧
The downturn of 2001, known colloquially as the “dot-com bubble,” saw unemployment rise and the US stock markets (S&P 500) tumble by 50% over two years. Triggered by the collapse of overvalued tech companies and excessive speculation, it was a cautionary tale of hubris and folly. 💻🚀
In 2008, the “financial crisis” wrought havoc with a significant GDP contraction, a surge in unemployment, and a 56% drop in the S&P 500. A subprime mortgage crisis, a banking system collapse, and a credit freeze were the culprits in this melodrama of economic despair. 🏠💔
Bear Market Timing: A Game of Economic Roulette
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), those vigilant sentinels of economic health, tracks four indicators to identify recessions: employment, personal income, industrial production, and retail sales. A most tedious endeavor, but necessary, I suppose. 📊🔍
A brief spike occurred in early 2020 due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns, but it was a recession of the shortest order. Presently, no imminent threat looms, though the risk remains elevated, like a storm cloud on the horizon. ☁️⚡
This cycle has been further complicated by the introduction of trade tariffs, which have already trimmed growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to continue their deleterious effects through the first half of 2026. A tangled web, indeed. 🕸️🌍
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2025-10-21 07:47